PM Update: On-and-off rain continues; storms may turn severe later Monday

Through tonight: Any evening storms should fizzle, giving us a small break before another round of showers and storms moves through during the early-morning hours. Muggy low temperatures merely get down into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Light to moderate south-southwesterly breezes continue.

Tomorrow (Monday): A slight lull in showers and storms may bring slightly sunnier skies during the midmorning into midday hours, if you’re hoping for a dry period outdoors. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will feel more like mid-90s thanks to dew points around 70 degrees. Storms are likely to become more numerous than Sunday, so enjoy any dry hours while you can.

One or more lines of severe storms are aimed at our region, moving from west to east. Much, if not all, of the possible severe storm threats are on the menu. In order of probability: damaging wind gusts over 57 mph, large hail, flooding downpours and even a tornado. See detailed discussion below. Please stay weather-aware and check back for updates here and even one additional weather source on Monday.

During non-stormy periods in the afternoon, southwest winds will gust near 30 mph. Overnight, conditions will be slow to calm and downpours may continue past midnight. We’ll still need to monitor for patchy flooding, too. Low temperatures bottom in the mid-60s to around 70 degrees.

Monday is a day we want you to stay tuned for afternoon and evening severe weather. We’ll have heat, humidity and instability, which are the ingredients for strong to severe storms, but it’s not clear if one or more solid lines of storms will be able to cross the entire region. Depending on what develops, severe weather could start in the mid- to late afternoon, or in the evening.

Overall, there is about a 60 percent chance of severe storms in the areas highlighted orange on the map below.

The first and most likely threat from these potentially severe storms is damaging wind gusts over 57 mph, in the areas highlighted in red on the map below.

Large hail potential comes next on our severe weather menu. Areas shaded yellow on the map below have at least a 15 percent chance of seeing large, damaging hailstones.

Unfortunately, we can’t rule out a tornado — the region shaded green in the map below has about a 2-5 percent chance. On top of all of this, downpours capable of producing patchy flash flooding (remember: turn around, don’t drown) are also on the list of threats.

We’ll talk more about this tonight in our weekly Sunday Sunset Live Q&A chat. Tune in at 8:37 p.m.!

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